Xin Xu and the Next Evolution of College Basketball Recruiting

Most NCAA basketball recruits spend their time before college playing in overcrowded high school gyms, whether in their team's playoff runs or in travel ball tournaments where friends and onlookers pack in by the hundreds. Faces of family members peer down on them from the stands, and their teammates, who are also their classmates, take the floor alongside them, with tomorrow's geometry test looming large in their minds.

Xin Xu has had a vastly different experience playing basketball. The 7-foot-5 Chinese center has spent the last five years playing professionally in the Chinese Basketball Association, first as a member of the Guangdong Southern Tigers and then as a Guangzhou Loong Lion. At 17, Xu was taking the floor in front of 16,000 fans, without a geometry test in sight. Now, the 22-year-old has the chance to make a splash in college athletics, carrying with him one of the highest price tags of any player available on the open market of the transfer portal. Xu will not only be a high-level contributor to whichever team is smart enough to take a chance on him: he'll also open even more doors for the international transfer portal, a long-overdue innovation in a landscape that is always searching for talent.

Xin Xu As a Player

It isn't hard to imagine how Xu plays. With his height, he hardly has any choice but to be a prototypical center, a role he has fulfilled to a tee with the Lions. A stat line of 10.9 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks per game tells the story of a rim-running big who deals out just as much contact on defense as he takes on offense. Xu also has some eye-popping shooting stats, with a 72.4% shooting percentage and a 72.6% free throw percentage.

While Xu does his fair share of dunking, he also displays good touch around the rim, effectively working from all areas of the paint. A surprising amount of foot speed shows up in the pick-and-roll, where Xu is essentially a wall before turning into a hard roller. The offensive glass isn't his specialty; even so, his height makes him a handful, even for the grown men he competes against as a professional.

As is the case with plenty of big men, Xu really shines on the defensive end of the floor. Despite being a verifiable giant, the young man fills out his frame quite well, weighing in at 250 pounds. He isn't a bodybuilder by any means, but his tape shows a play strength that allows him to consistently meet charging opponents at the rim, absorb the bump, and finish the play with a block. Xu's aforementioned foot speed also shows up as he roams the paint, allowing him to get himself into position to make plays.

So what are all of these skills actually worth? According to Xu's AVI index, quite a bit. If he does move to a college team, Xu is in line to bring home an NIL deal worth more than $3 million. For context, UNC's Henri Veesaar's AVI index was just over $2.9 million last season, meaning that Xu holds the same value as the best centers in college basketball.

Best Fits

Finding fits for good players is usually pretty straightforward, and Xu is no exception. There are a number of teams that could use his services, some of which are more alluring than others.

A semi-appealing landing spot is St. John's. Head coach Rick Pitino pursued Massamba Diop and Moustapha Thiam to start at center. Both have AVI valuations of nearly $1.5 million, leading them to Gonzaga and Michigan, respectively. As of now, Pitino is slated to send Zuby Ejiofor, who is 6-foot-9, out at center. His other option is the larger Ruben Prey, but Prey only played 10.7 minutes per game last year, calling into question his ability to start on a championship team. Xu solves all of those problems, but it seems unlikely that a program like St. John's will be able to meet the price tag he will inevitably demand.

BYU has shown a pattern of paying up the big bucks for high-level players, and it has the roster space to accommodate Xu. None of the fives currently projected to play for the Cougars has significant college experience, and the team ranked 44th in the nation in blocks per game last season. There is a clear need at the position, and if the program commits anywhere near as much money to basketball as it did in 2025-26, there will be plenty of money available for Xu.

Finally, UNC stands out as the best landing spot in the nation for Xu. With the aforementioned Veesaar headed to the NBA, transfer center Cade Bennerman is likely to be the fifth man in the lineup. Bennerman is a good player, but having him as your main center while harboring championship aspirations is an incongruent thought. New head coach Mike Malone seems to know this, sending his coaching staff to scour Europe for a center. If they headed a little further east, they would find the right guy. While Xu lacks the scoring acumen typical of UNC centers, he would provide much-needed experience and rim protection. The Tar Heels are also big spenders in the NIL scene, making Chapel Hill an excellent option for Xu, financially as well as athletically.

The Bigger Picture: What Programs Can Learn

International recruiting has quietly been on the uptick for years. In 2009, there were only 668 international Division I basketball players in the NCAA's ranks. That number shot up to 1,838 in 2025, an 175% increase in 15 years. However, there are still only five players of Chinese origin at the highest level of college basketball, and only one, former Oregon Duck Wei Lin, got consistent minutes on a big-name program. This is in stark contrast to Spain and Australia, each of which has more than 30, and Serbia, which has more than 20.

Making this discrepancy even more perplexing is the fact that basketball is the most popular sport in China, a country of 1.4 billion people. It isn't as though there aren't any developmental options, either. Over 5,900 students play high school basketball in China, and the NBA runs tournaments that showcase the best teams in the nation across 12 different regions. While the level of competition is obviously substantially lower than that of United States high schools, there is undoubtedly a handful of players who would be worth looking into.

The most promising Chinese talent pool comes from the same background as Xu: the CBA. A search through the 20 CBA rosters reveals a dearth of talented players who fit the age profile colleges are looking for. There are a whopping 108 athletes aged between 18 and 21, most of whom have been playing professional basketball for a year or two already. Here, there is no argument for a poor level of opposition, as the CBA is a routine destination for former Division I and NBA players. The aforementioned Lin played three years in the CBA and immediately became a solid contributor on an Oregon team loaded with talent. Even though some of the 108 would undoubtedly prefer to remain in China, there must be a solid portion interested in an NCAA scholarship and the money that comes with it.

In short, there is immense potential in what is essentially an untapped market of Chinese basketball. With over 100 university-age professionals in the CBA, and even more who are 22 and 23, NCAA programs are shooting themselves in the foot by avoiding the talent pool. Many of those players are likely more ready to make an immediate impact than most high school recruits, given their experience playing in front of tens of thousands of fans at a professional level. If Xin Xu does indeed decide to play college ball, he will be the first of many as programs aim to copy the process that landed such a valuable player on whatever team he chooses.

A Landscape-Altering Addition

On the court, Xu's attributes make him a slam-dunk addition to any program. He has the offensive game of a classic center, with the ability to hammer down dunks, work in the post, and play well in the pick-and-roll. He gets even better on defense, providing an elite shot-blocking presence that is sure to increase the defensive rating of whatever team he joins. As a high-level contributor at a critical position, Xu could be a cornerstone of a deep playoff run for whichever team lands him.

But somehow, the center's impact off the court has the chance to be even bigger than his contributions on it. If Xu plays to his potential at the Division I level, he will open NCAA athletics to an enormous number of Chinese prospects. Programs are always trying to copy the success of their rivals, and doing so by recruiting from a pool of players that has youth, talent, and experience against professional players makes all too much sense. Xin Xu has a chance to be great, on and off the court, for himself and for hundreds of others in a similar position. Ultimately, he has an opportunity to take a path that might change the recruiting landscape of college basketball forever.